Pengaruh Nilai Tukar, Inflasi, dan Suku Bunga Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Indonesia Tahun 2013-2022

Abstract

Monetary stability is a reflection of the welfare of society in a country. The central bank, which has control over monetary policy, should be able to maintain monetary stability and preserve foreign exchange reserves, which function as a stabilizer of the exchange rate and a tool to curb inflation. However, in the end of 2022, there was a significant increase in the exchange rate, inflation, and interest rates. This was accompanied by fluctuations in the value of foreign exchange reserves. This study aims to examine and analyze the influence of the exchange rate, inflation, and interest rates on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. Non-probability sampling was used as the sampling method, specifically purposive sampling. The research data were obtained from reports published by the National Statistics Agency and Bank Indonesia from 2013 to 2022. The data analysis method used was multiple linear regression analysis, processed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 26.0. The partial test results show that the exchange rate has a significant impact on foreign exchange reserves, while inflation does not have a significant impact on foreign exchange reserves, and interest rates have a significant impact on foreign exchange reserves. Next, the simultaneous test results show that the exchange rate, inflation, and interest rates collectively have a significant impact on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves by 83.4%, while the remaining 16.6% is influenced by other factors not covered in this study. This research is expected to be beneficial for the central bank in analyzing policies related to foreign exchange reserves, thereby enabling more effective and efficient management of these reserves.